Are you a Deal or No Deal Fanatic? Do you love to yell at the television offering your advice to the contestant when he deals with the banker? It is a suspenseful and anxious few moments when the show host calls the mysterious banker for the offer to which the contestant must decide to answer ‘Deal’ or “No deal”.
There are a few general tips you can use to help you decide what type of armchair advice to offer the contestant. When it is early in the game, the banker has more leeway and less risk, so he may make more generous offers. But there is actually a financial principal which helps you decide if an offer is good or bad.
This principal is called ‘expected value’ and it lets you assign value to something now even though the future is uncertain.
In the instance of Deal or No Deal, the idea is to determine what the expected value is of the case the contestant selected.
First, you must ascertain the potential gain. The highest amount on the board is the maximum amount the contestant could win. As the game is played out and cases get eliminated, this causes the potential gain to spiral downward.
Next you must...
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