It’s finally happening. The recent repeated warnings of economists and industry watchers predicted the housing boom of the 2000s is winding down. The recent news is full of reports about slowing existing home sales, rising inventories, longer selling cycles and lower asking prices.
So if the housing market finally appears to be cooling down, commercial real estate investors should take notice. Heres why: There’s a strong connection between the residential boom and the health of the four key commercial sectors retail, multifamily, office and industrial. Soaring home prices and low interest rates have enabled millions of homeowners to take out home equity loans and cash-out refinancing and the resulting wealth effect has percolated through the economy.
The big beneficiary was retail real estate, where owners of malls and shopping centers have seen valuations skyrocket, along with retail receipts. The boom also has helped drive growth in industrial construction, particularly on the West Coast, to handle incoming Chinese goods. It has also bolstered office occupancies in hot residential markets as the mortgage business expanded. Finally, the housing...
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