NFL Betting Systems – #46 – Pass Defense Ratings (PDE).
If someone where to ask me: “Is their one particular NFL statistic that you would class as indispensable when working against the point spread”? It wouldn’t take me long to respond. The answer–Pass Defense ratings, or PDE for short.
This may come as a surprise to those purists who believe that the NFL is built on the rushing game, but yes, how well a team defends against the pass is a huge predictor of future results and as we will explore in this article–under the right circumstances, it can also directly influence the mind-set and subsequent betting actions of the ‘Average-Joe’ bettor.
As with all of my ‘Team Ratings’, I measure the quality of a teams Pass Defense based on Yards-per-Play averages, compared against the quality of Pass Offenses a team has faced during the season.
As an example: going into the last week of the 2006 season, Chicago ranked 2nd in the league with a PDE Rating of +0.75. This was calculated by taking Chicago’s Yards-per-Pass play average on defense (4.77) and subtracting it from how well their...
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