This Saturday, Ill be back at the same sports bar where I watched the Kentucky Derby. If you read my Derby column, I told you to throw out a couple of favorites (Lawyer Ron and Brother Derek), and keep Barbaro, despite history being against him. Unfortunately, I also told you that I like Americas favorite bet, the exacta. The exacta always seems do-able, and offers a chance to win some real dollars. And in a field of 20, what were the chances of hitting the Trifecta? Sad to say, that darn Bluegrass Cat spoiled my day. This was a horse that, by all reports, was the bust of 2006. Thats why its called gambling. But Triple Crown races are events, and, if you are a sports fan, youve got to bet the Preakness.
This time, its all about value. Sure, Barbaro looked great in the Kentucky Derby, but is he the sure thing that many analysts and bettors make him out to be? Well, maybe. Which is the reason youll never get value betting on him this Saturday. At best, hell go off at even money. Keep in mind, until Smarty Jones won in 2004, it had been 25 years since an odds-on-favorite won the Preakness Stakes. Youll hear a lot about The Bounce Factor, which says that horses tend to...
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